Plans for Christmas?

As an owner at Lake McGregor Country Estates, did you know that you could book part of the clubhouse for a Christmas party? Have friends and/or family out, got for a swim, play some pool, and maybe do some dancing, enjoying the facilities. Call management to check for available dates and times.

It's beginning to look alot like.....

Old man winter rolled into Lake McGregor Country Estates this past week and welcomed us all to the season! We all knew the storm was coming and, yes, the weather guy got it right - we got a dump of snow! Talking with a local RCMP member, the snow plows were out at 2am, clearing the highways, laying down whatever they lay down to make it not so icy. The morning of the snowfall was a little quiet. The residents that were still at the resort slowly started the whole shoveling show thing. Management had their snow removal equipment in high gear. I was out a day or so after the storm and saw a few good sized drifts up against the sides of some RVs. Yes, winter has arrived! Then again, the forecast is for plus 6 degrees and higher starting Monday or so. Thank you chinook winds! As far as sales go at the resort, we are in to the slower time of the year. We have had one or two people asking about the resort this past week. I also am working on listing a foreclosure property, a cottage, and hope to have that on the market by this time next week. Not exactly the best time to be marketing a property at the lake, but a couple of years ago, I sold two properties on what I am guessing was the coldest day of the year! Thus, we keep moving forward.

Winterizing

The sun has had a busy summer and does not get up as early as it did what seems like only weeks ago. The leaves are falling... The weather guy has started talking PLUS degrees and MINUS degrees. I guess this means that winter is coming. We have had a really nice summer. We were not drenched in rain. We did not really have many windy days, but when we did get the wind, we REALLY got the wind! Anyhow, it's time to get units winterized. For those owners who live at the lake full time, it's just classified as a fall clean-up. But for those other RV and cottage owners, it's time to get ready for the freeze! A good start is to make arrangements with management to get the water shut off at the curb. RV antifreeze is a must. And make sure you have your "stuff" cleaned up and stored away in your unit or shed, such as lawn chairs, awnings, toys, and more. We all know that the wind CAN come up and make a mess so best to plan ahead. One more thing that I suggest is to let your neighbors and management know your plans for the winter season, and leave them your contact information in case they need to get in touch with you. And remember, the resort is open year round so if you get a chance to come out this winter, you can still go for a swim in the clubhouse pool, and enjoy the other facilities inside. Enjoy!

Go figure!

So much for my theory about the weather and the recreational real estate market. We had a mild winter so I figured that we would be having a busy spring at Lake McGregor Country Estates. Nope. We did sell a few places, but not as many as we would have liked. Then August rolled around. Last month of the summer season. Who is going to buy anything now? Well, with one or two properties selling per week, I would say that there are quite a few people who were looking at buying themselves some recreational property. We had a prime lake view cottage lot that we almost had multiple offers on. We also sold a couple of the larger lots we had for sale, and two interior lots. Those lots were picked as they were close to the playground and clubhouse. We even had an RV with lot sell. Most of the sales were bargains. That is why they sold now compared to one year ago. Sellers were holding out for more one year ago, but now some just wanted to cut their loses and get the sale done. It worked for them, and it worked out good for the new owners. There are still more places to sell though. Still more sellers anxious to see me with an offer to purchase in my hands to show them. With a warmer than average fall predicted, do I see the market staying strong? If my spring prediction is any indication of my theories, I think I should just keep my mouth shut! Zip!

Whether we are reading a newspaper, listening to the radio, or watching the news on television, we are thrown all sorts of information to filter through, some good, some bad, some we just have to decide on our own where to classify it. We see stuff on blogs, Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, blogs and more and it is up to each and everyone of us to decide what we are going to believe as true, and what we think is a "bunch of balogne". This past week the news has been reporting that the Canadian housing market is going to take a down turn. "There is going to be a 10% drop in housing prices over the next few years." "There is going to be a market correction, as prices have doubled in the last 10 years or so." I wonder if everyone caught the fine print in the story that this is the forecast for Toronto and Vancouver. In particular, this is going to reflect their condo market. The question then is, what about the rest of the country? Canada is the second largest country in the world. We have several different time zones, different weather climates, oceans on three sides, with prairies, mountains, rocks, trees, and more in between. It seems to me that it would be a bit of a challenge to paint the real estate market of Canada with just one brush. Here is my two cents. You can take it or leave it. I have no money back guarantee with my predictions. These are just my thoughts on my local real estate market: During the last housing boom, the smaller towns and villages lagged behind the bigger centers such as Calgary and Edmonton. We did get a boom too (on a much smaller scale of course), but it was a year or so after the cities took off. When the cities started to cool down, we cooled down too, but after the cities had already started their cool down. I will compare this to the big brother little brother scenario. Little brother wants to grow up to be like big brother, but he is still little brother and it will take time to catch up to his older sibling. The older sibling already has life experience, and other resources to move him along. The little brother will need some time to build up his resources, get his name out there, for him to catch up. The cities already have a large population base to work with, unlike the smaller towns and villages, with established businesses and room to grow. Meanwhile, small towns and villages have to fight to get businesses to come to town. I could go on and on with that predicament, but I will stop there for now. I hope you got my point. The little guys and just a couple of steps behind the big guys. That's life. That is the challenge that smaller communities face compared to the larger ones. As Lake McGregor Country Estates is recreational property market, let's check it out for a minute. There are lots of properties for sale and have been for a while. Same goes for Little Bow Resort, and other recreational properties in Alberta. Recreational properties are not high on people's priority list in a slower economy. This market usually lags behind the residential market, just like the small town are behind the cities. As those markets pick up, the recreational property market will be picking up shortly afterwards. It is a challenge. It has always been a challenge, and it will be a challenge in the future. Small town living has it's ups and downs. So does living in the city. So does recreational property. And now back to the point of this little rant of mine. When you hear a story on the news, or read it somewhere, do your homework before you decide to turn on the panic button. Get the facts. Make up your own mind...and take it from there.

Town infrastructure projects update - Vulcan Advocate - Alberta, CA

Town infrastructure projects update - Vulcan Advocate - Alberta, CA

"Average" house prices don't tell the whole story - cbcnews.ca

I came across this article at Yahoo.ca and it's a clip from cbcnews.ca. Thought it was a good one to share: When someone asks how house prices are doing in a particular neighbourhood, the question seems easily answered. The big real estate boards all issue monthly price reports that spell out what the average selling price was in the previous month and how that compares to the month, and the year, before. But there's a problem with trying to divine market direction from average price data. It's just too blunt a tool. If real estate — as the saying goes — is really about "location, location, location," then average prices frequently don’t capture the reality of what's going on in a particular city or neighbourhood. Calculating the average house price is as simple as adding up the prices realized for all home sales in a particular month and dividing by the number of sales. The problem with that metric begins to emerge, however, when one or more parts of the housing market don't act in tandem with all the other segments, as they seldom do. For instance, what happens if the percentage of really expensive homes sold drops more than it does for other types of homes? That could lead to a big drop in the average selling price, even though the price of more moderate homes may be little changed. That exact scenario played out with the release of the June sales figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association. Among the ocean of figures CREA released was the fact that the average resale price across the country that month was down 0.8 per cent from the same month a year earlier. It left the impression that prices in the Canadian housing market had dropped compared to the previous year. It turns out that the national average price dropped only because Vancouver's pricey real estate market had 28 per cent fewer sales this June than it did in June 2011. Exclude Vancouver from the national figures and CREA says the average national selling price last month actually rose 3.2 per cent. In fact, CREA reports the average home price in June was higher year-over-year in 70 per cent of the local markets it looked at. Average price data within cities are also vulnerable to a shift in the sales mix. What if a huge batch of low-priced condos are snapped up one month? That would send the average price lower, even though the resale market for other types of housing may not have budged at all. So it comes as no surprise that economists who analyze the real estate market hate averages. "Averages are a horrible place to go," says Tsur Somerville, who heads up the Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate at the University of British Columbia. Gregory Klump, the chief economist at CREA, agrees. Using average prices is "like looking in a funhouse mirror," he warns. Finding the median price, which involves ranking all sales from top to bottom and finding the sale price that's in the middle, is a bit better, Somerville says, but it's still flawed methodology. Like average prices, the median fails to take into account changes in buying patterns. Economists say there are more sophisticated methods that give a better sense of market trends than either averages or medians. More than 15 years ago, the MLS developed its own home price index to get a clearer picture of price trends. It uses a complex statistical model to measure the rate at which housing prices change over time by tracking price changes in "typical" homes in each market. Each neighbourhood has a typical benchmark home. CREA, in addition to providing average home price data, also releases MLS home price index data for five major markets: Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary, the Greater Toronto Area and Montreal. Sixteen additional markets are slated to be added in the future. "If you really want an accurate measure of what's going on with home prices, you've got to keep the quality of the homes constant," says CREA's Klump. "That's what the [MLS home price index] does. It compares apples with apples over time. It's not subject to a change in the sales mix the way average and median prices are." What difference do the different approaches make? In Vancouver, for instance, the average selling price in June was $701,141, down 13.3 per cent from last year. But using the MLS home price index methodology, Greater Vancouver prices actually rose year-over-year by 1.7 per cent. This method of tracking home prices looks at how the price of the same house changes over time, so that only properties with at least two sales are entered into the mix. The assumption underlying this process is that each selected property's overall quality remains constant. Given the high rate of renovations, that can be problematic, but the statistical models attempt to account for that. The Teranet-National Bank home price index is the best-known example of the repeat sales method in Canada. "The statistics work out the problem that not every house sells every year," says Somerville, who uses data from both the MLS and the Teranet-National Bank home price indices to track market trends. In the U.S., the widely tracked Case-Shiller home price index uses the repeat sales method, too. Somerville cites a couple of other indicators to track housing price trends. The Royal Lepage house price survey is a quarterly look at seven types of housing in dozens of neighbourhoods across Canada. The values are estimates of fair market value in each of the surveyed locations, based on local home price data and knowledge of local housing market conditions provided by Royal Lepage real estate agents and brokers. "In theory, it should be problematic, because it's a survey," says Somerville. "It's not based on actual data. But it moves very well with the higher quality statistical data." Some market watchers also look at the sales-to-new-listings ratio. Currently, it's at 51.7 per cent nationally and has been trending down. Anything over 60 per cent is considered a sellers' market, with anything below 40 per cent being a buyers' market. Somerville also looks at sales activity. "Changes in sales tend to lead market conditions," he says. "So when sales are declining, that's the best sign of a weakening market, although price declines don't have to follow. You can get prices flat-lining; they don't have to decline." Currently, the number of sales in most markets in Canada is slowing. Overall, CREA reports 4.4 per cent fewer sales in June than a year earlier. At the same time, year-over-year prices aren't retreating in most markets, at least yet. But the recent tightening in mortgage regulations could change that and it could show up as early as August, when sales and price figures for July are released. "We do anticipate that some first-time buyers will be priced out of the market," Klump says. These days, the operative words among Canadian housing market watchers seem to be "slowing" and "cooling." "The cycle of eroding affordability followed by softening home prices has begun in some regions and will be felt in many parts of the country by year-end," Royal Lepage CEO Phil Soper forecasts. "Home prices cannot grow faster than salaries and the underlying economy indefinitely." Somerville says that of all the housing markets in Canada, Toronto is the one that bears watching. "If I was concerned about a market, I'd be more concerned about Toronto, because the level of building activity has been very, very high there," he says, referring to the the boom in condo-building. "You see supply levels being very high by historic standards in terms of construction," he says. "I'm not saying things have to go sour; I'd just be more concerned [about Toronto] than elsewhere."